The 2024 hurricane season has been relatively calm so far, but as Labor Day weekend kicks off, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is closely monitoring three tropical disturbances in the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. While none of these systems have yet developed into named storms, their potential for intensification is being tracked with cautious attention.
Tropical Systems Under Observation
The NHC’s tropical weather outlook highlights three key areas of concern:
- Northwestern Gulf of Mexico: Situated just offshore from the upper Texas coast, this disturbance is projected to move inland by Tuesday. Despite its proximity to land, it has not yet evolved into a tropical storm or hurricane. The system is expected to linger near the coast over the coming days, potentially bringing thunderstorms and heavy rain to the Texas and Louisiana coasts. Though its chances of development remain low—10% over the next 48 hours and seven days—it could still cause flash flooding in coastal areas.
- Near the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean Sea: A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles is moving westward. This system is likely to reach the Caribbean islands by Monday, bringing gusty winds and heavy rainfall. As it progresses westward across the Caribbean Sea, conditions could become more favorable for development, potentially leading to the formation of a tropical depression later in the week. The NHC currently gives it a 10% chance of development within the next 48 hours and a 40% chance over the next seven days.
- Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean, near West Africa: A system is expected to move off the coast of Africa on Monday. While the current chances of development are minimal—0% within 48 hours and 20% within seven days—there is still potential for gradual strengthening as it drifts westward across the Atlantic.
Additional Tropical Waves
In addition to these disturbances, the NHC is also tracking three tropical waves:
- One in the eastern Atlantic moving westward.
- Another in the central Atlantic, also moving westward, accompanied by scattered moderate convection.
- A third wave in the western Caribbean, crossing into the Pacific. This wave extends from southeastern Mexico through El Salvador, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms observed along the Pacific coast of Central America.
What’s Next for the 2024 Hurricane Season?
Although the season began quietly, August saw Hurricane Ernesto strike Bermuda, generating dangerous surf and rip currents along the U.S. East Coast. Earlier, in July, Hurricane Beryl made history as the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record, causing devastating damage and a significant death toll as it impacted multiple Caribbean islands and later moved through Texas, Louisiana, and Vermont.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted an extremely active hurricane season for 2024. Predictions suggest that there could be 17 to 24 named storms, with eight to 13 potentially becoming hurricanes. Of these, four to seven could develop into major hurricanes with winds exceeding 111 mph.
In a typical season, the Atlantic sees around 14 named storms, seven of which become hurricanes, and three evolve into major hurricanes. The 2024 season, spanning from June 1 to November 30, is expected to be significantly more intense than usual, with conditions ripe for one of the busiest seasons on record.
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